If you’ve been watching the Toronto housing market for the past few years, you probably have a little whiplash. Things seem to go from 0-100 in the blink of an eye, with a steady, steep incline that has felt like the moments before a rollercoaster drops. Well, the most recent Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) stats are out for the month, and everyone’s asking–has it dropped? 

If you’re curious about Toronto real estate prices, you are not alone! It’s on the front of everyone’s mind right now, even people who don’t work in real estate. In this post, I’m going to break down some of the latest numbers and try to give a little insight into where things might be going. I’m no fortune teller, so I can’t say for sure, but I can at least give you a rough idea. 

Before I dive in, are you subscribed to my YouTube channel? Be the first to know about my latest videos by subscribing here. 

How Do the September 2022 Toronto Market Stats Look? 

Honestly, better than expected. Although these numbers make for great news headlines and tend to incite a teeny bit of panic, I’m here to tell you it’s not all doom and gloom. 

Home prices in Toronto have been coming down since the peak of the market in the spring of 2022, but this month we are finally seeing year-over-year price decreases. Which is a good thing! 

The average price for a home in Toronto is just under $1.1 million, which is down about 4.25% over September 2021. Market experts (myself included) see this as a sign of the market stabilizing. 

Now, doesn’t a stable market sound nice? 

Here’s what you need to know about buying and selling real estate when market conditions change:

• Check Yourself Before You…Sell Your House: Things to Know About Selling Your Home in a Shifting Market
• Crunching the Numbers: Should You Buy or Rent in Canada?
• Tick-Tock: Should You Time the Market?

What About the Toronto Condo Market?

Interestingly, Toronto condos were the only property segment that saw an increase in price this month. The average price of a condo in Toronto is about $730,00, which is up 3.2% over last year. 

What does this mean for you? Basically, if you’re in the market for a condo, now is the time to act, they’re holding value really well! 

Looking for a condo in Toronto? Check out all the reasons why we love Fort York as a neighbourhood! 

Breaking Down that Big 44% Drop in Sales 

This is a figure you’re going to see in all the news stories. It’s a headline grabber for sure. Sales in Toronto were down 44%. But that doesn’t actually mean that prices were off by that amount. It just means that 44% fewer homes sold. 

TRREB was also reporting a decrease of 16% year-over-year in new listings, which is the lowest it’s been since 2002. 

Is a Toronto Price Correction Coming?

Many buyers are waiting patiently for the market to drop further. They’re expecting a bubble to burst and for prices to fall through the floor. But is that going to happen? 

I say it all the time, real estate agents are not psychics, but I do have a little food for thought:

Low sales and low new listings numbers are the number one reason we won’t see a huge price correction in the Toronto market. Low inventory is the biggest driver of home prices in the GTA. Basically, there’s not enough homes for people to live in. Which resulted in the bidding wars we saw during the pandemic. 

For more info on bidding wars and multiple offers, check out our post about it right here.

There’s a really good chance that the increased interest rates and the drop in sales are actually just masking the inventory issue we’ve always had here in Toronto. 

Believe it or not, but I’m still seeing homes sell with multiple offers and high competition. It might not be reflected in the TRREB numbers, but it’s happening! 

Thinking about buying a home in Toronto this year? Here are some blogs to help get you started:

• Raise Your Hand if You’d Like to Buy a Cheap Home in Toronto
• Not Trying to Burst Your Bubble, but Now IS a Good Time for Real Estate Investors
• Spilling the Tea on Your Top 8 Buyer FAQs

Other Market Numbers to Pay Attention To

When it comes to the TRREB stats, most news outlets are just going to take the wildest numbers and run. After all, a crazy headline is what gets the clicks. However, looking at some of the other numbers might help give you a clearer picture of what’s actually going on. 

Here are some other real estate market stats to look for, and what they mean for you:

• Average Listing Days on Market: This stat shows the average number of days a listing spends on the market before it sells. It’s important to know this figure as a buyer or a seller because it will either tell you how quickly you need to act to buy a home and approximately how long you should expect to wait for your home to sell. In September 2021, the LDOM was 14. Now, the LDOM is 23, meaning that the market is moving slower than it was last year. 
• Months of Inventory: This stat is often confusing, but super important, it speaks directly to the relationship between inventory and what buyers are currently doing. Months of inventory takes the number of active listings, supposing that no new listings hit the market, and estimates how long it would take to sell off the entire inventory of homes currently available. Many economists use months of inventory to estimate what type of market we’re in. Typically, anything below 1 month of inventory would be considered a “Seller’s Market” while anything above 3 months of inventory would be a “Buyer’s Market.” Right now, months of inventory across Canada is at 3.7 according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Reading the TRREB stats is super interesting if you know how to look beyond the headlines. For more insights on the Toronto real estate market and the best strategies for buying and selling today, call or text me at 647-973-8392. I’d love to connect!