Fall is around the corner, and the Toronto real estate market is gearing up for some serious action—especially in the condo scene. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, it’s crucial to know what’s happening and what’s coming next. So, let’s dive in and get you ready to make the best moves this season.
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Where Are We Now?
Let’s cut to the chase. The Toronto condo market has been tilting towards a buyer’s market for a while now. Inventory is up, buyers have more options, and yes, that gives them a bit of an edge. But here’s the twist—this dynamic could be about to change.
Interest rates have been on a downward trend, but the impact? Let’s just say it’s been more of a slow burn. Experts are predicting that once we hit a 100 basis point drop from where we started the year, we’ll see a serious wave of buyers jumping back in. Right now, we’re halfway there, and with the next rate announcement on September 4th, things could get really interesting.
Sales and Listings: The Numbers Don’t Lie
Now, let’s talk numbers, because they don’t lie. In July 2024, home sales in the Greater Toronto Area were up compared to last year—up by 3.3%, to be exact. That’s 5,391 homes sold through TRREB’s MLS® System. And here’s the kicker: new listings shot up even more, by a whopping 18.5% year-over-year. That means more choices for buyers and a slight easing in prices.
The average selling price in July dipped by just 0.9% compared to last year, sitting at $1,106,617. Not a huge drop, but in a market that’s been on a steady climb, it’s worth noting. What’s really interesting? On a month-over-month basis, both the benchmark and average selling prices actually ticked up a bit. Could this be the start of something? I’m thinking yes.
Looking Ahead: Fall Market Predictions
So, what’s coming this fall? Here’s what I see on the horizon:
Buyers Are Coming Back: As interest rates continue to slide, expect more buyers to jump back in. The promise of lower monthly mortgage payments is a powerful motivator, and once we hit that 100 basis point drop, the floodgates could open.
Price Stabilization: With more inventory on the market, prices might hold steady at first. But as that inventory gets snapped up, things could tighten up, and we might see prices start to climb again. Stay tuned—this could happen fast.
All Eyes on Interest Rates: September 4th is a date you’ll want to circle on your calendar. The next rate announcement could be the catalyst that shifts the market. If rates keep dropping, it could set off a wave of buying activity, but the real impact might take a little time to play out.
The Bigger Picture: What’s Really Driving the Market?
Let’s zoom out for a second. Canada’s unemployment rate is at 6.4% right now—up from last year’s 5.5%, but still below the long-term average of 8.04%. Whether or not we enter a recession is going to play a massive role in shaping the real estate market.
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Here’s the deal: If we avoid a recession, a strong labor market could allow for more rate cuts without tipping the economy over the edge, gradually boosting home sales. But if we do hit a recession, history shows us that falling home sales usually lead us in, and rising sales help pull us out. A recession could trigger more aggressive rate cuts, giving the housing market the jolt it needs to drive the next phase of economic recovery.
Conclusion: What’s Your Next Move?
As we head into fall, the Toronto real estate market is setting up for some exciting changes. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or just make sense of it all, staying informed is your best strategy. The market is dynamic, and making the right move at the right time could make all the difference.
Thinking about making a move this fall? Got questions about how these trends might impact your plans? Don’t wait—reach out today. At Homeplicity Realty Group, we’re here to guide you through Toronto’s market with expert advice and a personalized touch.
Ready to take the next step? Give me a call or text at 647-973-8392 for the kind of guidance that turns opportunities into results. Let’s make your next move your best move yet!
